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La creciente ventaja de los Estados Unidos sobre Europa

En 1970 Suecia era uno de los países más ricos del mundo. Entre los países industrializados afiliados a la OCDE, una organización que lleva estadísticas, Suecia ocupaba el cuarto lugar en producción por habitante (PIB per cápita). (ver Las curvas suecas de Richard W. Rahn) Pero, aproximadamente de 1950 a 1990, Suecia aumentó el tamaño de su gobierno hasta llevarlo a niveles de gigantismo pocas veces vistos en la historia. Los Estados Unidos de América (EE.UU.) siempre se han colocado cerca de los primeros lugares del mundo en nivel de vida: En 1970 tanto los EE.UU. como Suecia se encontraban entre los países más ricos del mundo.

Mantener el gigantismo estatal sueco obligó no solamente a establecer impuestos exorbitantes, sino que llevó al estancamiento de la producción sueca. Suecia no fue el único país en caer en el gigantismo estatal, dicho gigantismo afectó a prácticamente toda Europa: A medida que los países europeos fueron instaurando el impuesto al valor agregado IVA, el gigantismo estatal europeo comenzó a aventajar en tamaño al gigantismo estatal de los EE.UU. (Ver El Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) en este sitio web). El gráfico de abajo muestra cómo a partir de cerca de 1967, fecha en que en Europa se empezó a extender el impuesto al valor agregado IVA, el gasto del gobierno en Europa -y la carga tributaria necesaria para pagar dicho gasto-  se fue haciendo considerablemente mayor que el de los EE.UU. Sin duda el IVA no es el  único factor que llevó al  gigantismo estatal europeo, pero sin duda el IVA, que no se ha instaurado en los EE.UU., es un factor crucial.

Si no puede ver la imagen de arriba, haga clic acá http://www.anfe.or.cr/images/iva/AumentoIVA-EUA-UE-1964-1992.JPG

Resulta muy revelador comparar el nivel de vida de los  EE.UU. con Europa precisamente porque a final de los 1960s ambas regiones tenían cargas tributarias que no eran tan diferentes, y hoy la carga tributaria en los países europeos suele ser mucho mayor que la de los EE.UU., con excepciones notables como Irlanda.

Martin De Vlieghere y Paul Vreymans de Work for All señalan en  Europe’s Ailing Social Model: Facts & Fairy-Tales ("El agonizante modelo social europeo: Hechos y cuentos de hadas" http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/933 ) que mientras que en el 2004 y 2005 la producción en el mundo creció a una tasa cercana al 4% anual, y nuestos cálculos arrojan una tasa de crecimiento de la producción de 3.9% anual para los EE.UU., Europa creció a una tasa, de 1.5%, tasa que, además, según ellos, es una tasa "inflada". La diferencia entre la tasa de crecimiento de los EE.UU. y de Europa es de 2.4% (3.9% menos 1.5%). Esa diferencia parece pequeña. Pero, con el paso del tiempo, diferencias que parecen pequeñas, como un  1% anual, se convierten en diferencias abismales. 

Uno de los grandes temas del momento es el muro que podría construirse entre  los EE.UU. y México: Dicho muro pretendería impedir el ingreso a los EE.UU. de mexicanos y latinoamericanos que cruzan ilegalmente la frontera para poder disfrutar del elevado nivel de vida de los EE.UU. y de las buenas remuneraciones que allí se ganan. Pues Tylor Gowen de George Mason University, calculó que si de 1870 a 1990 la producción de los EE.UU. hubiera crecido solamente un 1% anual menos rápidamente, el nivel de vida en los EE.UU. en 1990 habría sido tan bajo que habría sido igual al nivel de vida de  México en 1990. (ver Market Center Blog http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2006-11/2006-11.shtml#025 ) Esto resalta como una diferencia aparentemente pequeña en la velocidad a la que crece la producción, con el paso del tiempo, se convierte en un abismo.

Cualquiera que haya viajado en avión de Costa Rica a Europa, sobrevolando por ejemplo Miami, Florida, se da cuenta de que el nivel de vida de los Estados Unidos (EE.UU.) supera por mucho al de Europa.

Por ejemplo al sobrevolar Miami, se ven vistas como las que se muestran abajo. Nótese que la altitud de sobrevuelo es de aproximadamente 1180 metros. Estas imágenes fueron obtenidas con Google Earth, http://earth.google.com/ ( requiere de conección de alta velocidad a internet)

Nótese que las fotografías de arriba, que corresponden a Miami, muestran casas individuales: Un hogar, una casa. Dichas casas además suelen tener un jardín de tamaño moderado y sus dueños suelen también ser dueños de uno o más automóviles.

Por otra parte Suecia es el país industrializado con impuestos más elevados, Suecia es el "paraíso socialista" para muchos, el ejemplo que hay que imitar. Por eso resulta particularmente interesante la comparación entre Suecia y los Estados Unidos de América. Mientras que en Miami, Florida,  abundan las casas unifamiliares, en Estocolomo, capital de Suecia, abundan los edificios multifamiliares de apartamentos, como los que muestran las fotos de abajo, situados en Estocolmo, Suecia. Según Statistics Sweden ( http://www.scb.se/templates/pressinfo____163942.asp  ), casi 60% de los habitantes de Estocolmo viven en edificios de apartamentos. Sin embargo, hay que señalar que 56% de la población sueca vive en casas unifamiliares, es en las ciudades en donde abundan los apartamentos.

Las opiniones difieren, es posible que alguien prefiera vivir en un edificio multifamiliar de apartamentos, pero muchas personas prefieren ampliamente vivir en su casa propia, sin vecinos arriba, abajo y a los lados, sin vecinos que pueden molestarse por el ruido o por otras cosas... Nótese que la altura de sobrevuelo, 1160 metros, es similar a la altura de sobrevuelo de las fotos de Miami.

Las fotos de arriba son una muestra de la abundancia de edificios de apartamentos en Estocolmo, Suecia. Pero en Estocolmo también abundan las casas individuales, como las de las dos fotos de abajo.

Sin embargo, el punto es que abundan los edificios multifamiliares en Estocolmo, Suecia.

Lo anterior ilustra la diferencia de nivel de vida entre Suecia y los EE.UU., pero es necesario mostrar evidencia estadística. En muchas partes de Europa se puede alegar que las personas no viven en casas individuales porque el terreno escasea. Pero eso difícilmente puede alegarse respecto a Suecia, en donde en el 2005 había menos habitantes por kilómetro cuadrado que en los EE.UU.

Un conocido estudio de junio del 2004, EU versus USA, ("UE versus EE.UU.", disponible en http://www.timbro.se/bokhandel/pdf/9175665646.pdf ) publicado por TIMBRO, una conocida institución sueca de estudio de políticas públicas, compara el nivel de vida de los Estados Unidos con el de Europa, pero enfatizando las diferencias de nivel de vida entre Suecia y los Estados Unidos de América (EE.UU.). Tal comparación es particularmente interesante puesto que Suecia es el presunto "paraíso socialista"

Dicho estudio arroja datos sobre el espacio de habitación (dwelling space) de los hogares suecos, que en 1997 era de 460.1 pies cuadrados (43 m2) por persona y que apenas supera al espacio de habitación que tenían los hogares pobres estadounidenses mucho antes, en 1993, que gozaban de 438.6 pies cuadrados (41 m2) por persona. El promedio de todos los hogares estadounidenses en 1993,  721.2 pies cuadrados (67 m2), supera ampliamente al promedio de los hogares suecos, que era de 460.1 pies cuadrados (43 m2) en 1997.

 

Nótese que en la muestra solamente Dinamarca en el 2001, Italia en 1991, Luxemburgo en el 2001 y Suecia en 1007 tienen un espacio de habitación que supera el de los hogares pobres de los EE.UU. en 1993, que es una fecha relativamente lejana. ¿Qué tamaño tienen hoy las casas de los pobres estadounidenses?

Pero, Understanding Poverty ( http://www.heritage.org/Research/Welfare/bg1713.cfm ), de Rector y Johnson, el estudio que parece haber sido usado como fuente para el estudio, encuentra datos ligeramente diferentes.

Según Rector y Johnson, en lo que llaman "Area de piso por persona" (Floor Area per person), los estadounidenses pobres gozan de 439 pies cuadrados, mientras que el sueco promedio goza de 431 pies cuadrados.

Por otra parte, Statistics Sweden ( http://www.scb.se/templates/pressinfo____163942.asp ) indica que 56% de los suecos viven en casas individuales. Pero, Rector y Johnson indican que 54% de los estadounidenses pobres viven en casas individuales, 36.4% en apartamentos, y 9.6% en casas rodantes.

El Wall Street Journal señala que 66% de los estadounidenses son dueños de su casa ( http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2005-12/2005-12.shtml#222 ). Statistics Sweden señala que poco más de una tercera parte de los suecos alquilan casa. ¿Significa eso que poco menos de 66% son dueños de casa? Rector y Johnson, señalan que 46% de los pobres estadounidenses son dueños de casa. La casa promedio consta de tres dormitorios y un baño y medio. Tiene un garage o lugar para automóvil, corredor (porch) y patio, y está situada en un terreno de medio acre.

Richard W. Rahn, experto internacional en política pública y en desarrollo económico, en un artículo titulado Las curvas suecas, disponible en el sitio web del Instituto CATO, http://www.elcato.org/publicaciones/articulos/art-2004-05-06.html ,da una excelente descripción de cómo Suecia llegó a ser uno de los países más ricos del mundo: 

El tamaño del fracaso del modelo sueco es tan espantoso como poco conocido. Por ejemplo, el sector privado sueco no ha creado nuevos puestos de trabajo desde 1950. Por el contrario, Estados Unidos ha creado más de 60 millones de nuevos puestos; de 52 millones que había en 1950 a unos 115 millones en 2002. Karlson nos informa también que “ninguna de las 50 compañías más grandes en la Bolsa de Valores de Estocolmo fue fundada después de 1970”.

En EE.UU. muchas de las más grandes empresas de hoy no existían o no se conocían en 1970, como Microsoft, Intel, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Cisco, etc. Entre la larga lista de fracasos del modelo sueco, Karlson cuenta que “Suecia ha caído, en cuanto ha PIB per cápita, desde el cuarto puesto en 1970 al puesto número 14 en 2002, entre los miembros de la OCDE” (los países industrializados).

Además, más de un millón de desempleados de una población laboral total de unos 4 millones no trabajaron en 2003, sino que vivieron de los programas de asistencia pública. Y “la mayoría de la población adulta de Suecia es empleada del gobierno o son clientes del Estado, en el sentido que la mayoría de su ingreso proviene de subsidios públicos”.

Hace medio siglo Suecia era una historia de gran éxito. Hace 150 años, Suecia comenzó a transformarse de una sociedad pobre y agrícola a una sociedad rica e industrializada. La economía fue desregulada, se redujeron los impuestos, se adoptó un código comercial moderno y el sistema de patentes. Como resultado, entre 1890 y 1950 Suecia fue el país de más rápido crecimiento en el mundo y allá se fundaron algunas de las más conocidas y respetadas compañías. En ese tiempo, los impuestos eran bajos, alcanzando éstos sólo 21% del PIB en 1950.

Pero entonces comenzaron a aparecer los rasgos del Estado Benefactor de la “tercera vía”. Los impuestos se dispararon en los años 60 hasta alcanzar a mediados de los años 90 más de 50% del PIB, mientras que el gasto gubernamental alcanzó 66% en 1995.

Un blog de Carried Away nos da gráficamente el gasto total gubernamental en los EE.UU. No tenemos a mano, por el momento, un gráfico similar para el gasto del gobierno sueco. 

Gasto total gubernamental en los EE.UU.  1929-2003 http://carriedaway.blogs.com/carried_away/2003/10/us_government_s.html

 

 

 

Sin embargo, Richard W. Rahn habla de un gasto del gobierno sueco de 66% del PIB. Según el Economic Freedom Index (Indice de Libertad Económica) de Heritage Foundation en el 2004 el gobierno sueco gastaba un 57.1% de toda la producción del país (ver http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/country.cfm?id=Sweden ). Daniel J. Mitchell, experto mundial en impuestos y en su efecto sobre la economía, indica en   Hoping to Restore Growth, Voters Rebel Against Sweden's High-Tax Welfare State (Esperando restablecer el crecimiento económico, los suecos votan contra el Estado de Bienestar sueco de altos impuestos) que el gobierno sueco gasta un 54% de toda la producción del país. Este documento data de septiembre del 2006, así que según estos datos, de fuentes distintas, Suecia ha disminuido considerablemente el gasto del gobierno, de 66% a 54% del PIB, la reducción es de un 12% del PIB.

Pero no es buena idea comparar datos de fuentes diferentes, como se hizo en el párrafo anterior. El cuadro de abajo, disponible en el sitio web del Ministerio de Hacienda del Japón http://www.mof.go.jp/english/budget/brief/2004/2004g_06.htm indica que el gasto total del gobierno sueco era de un 73% de la producción ¡Casi 3 cuartas partes de la producción! en 1993 y que en el 2001 era de 57.1% del PIB. Según esto, en Suecia la reducción del gasto del gobierno ha sido de 15.9% del PIB de 1993 al 2001. 

Uno de los puntos cruciales que se ha señalado es que la reducción del gobierno frecuentemente "oxigena" al sector privado y lleva a la aceleración de la producción (ver La reducción del gobierno "oxigena" al sector privado y expande (acelera) la producción en este sitio web y también Fiscal Policy, Profits and Investment http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/WP504.pdf  de Alesina, Ardagna, Perotti y Schiantarelli ) . En TODOS los casos que se han analizado en este sitio web (Bélgica, China, Chile, Costa Rica, EE.UU., Eslovaquia, Estonia, Inglaterra, Irlanda, Japón) claramente ha aparecido el patrón de reducciones del gobierno acompañándose de expansiones de la producción y ,vice versa, de expansiones del gobierno acompañándose de un freno de la producción. 

Se ha alegado que Suecia es un "estado de bienestar" que "funciona", pero, según hemos visto, la reducción del gasto del gobierno "reactiva" la economía, "oxigena" al sector privado, y sin duda parte del buen desempeño sueco reciente se ha debido a la enorme "oxigenación" que ha recibdo al reducir el gasto del sector público del 73% del PIB al 57.1% el PIB.

 

El estudio The Economic case for limited government http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/Papers/rahncurve/rahncurve.shtml muestra el gasto del gobierno en varios países industrializados en 1993 y en el 2007. Los países están ordenados según la reducción del gasto del gobierno: Suecia, que redujo su gasto total de 72.4% del PIB en 1993 a 54.8%, reduciéndolo un 17.6%, es quien lidera la lista.

En el período 1980-1993 la producción en Suecia creció a una raquítica tasa de 1.4% anual. En el período 1994-2005 la tasa de crecimiento anual de la producción fue de 3.0% anual, una diferencia de 1.6% 

Al mencionar a Europa se ha 

 



¡Modelos calientes de Suecia!
Johnny Munkhammar 


Suecia es un país de muchas contradicciones económicas y políticas: la presión impositiva más alta del mundo occidental y bajos impuestos corporativos, bonos (cupones) educativos y universidades dirigidas por el gobierno, una economía regulada pero una esfera privada libre. En fin, en parte socialismo, en parte economía de mercado -- en parte estado grande y en parte libertad.

Los países nórdicos, y quizás Suecia particularmente, ahora se citan a menudo como países de quienes el resto de la UE [Unión Europea] debe aprender. Una palabra como “flexicurity” se ha inventado, el informe de Sapir (un panel tasked (¿creado?) por la Comisión de las Comunidades Europeas con el propósito de  determinar las perspectivas de crecimiento [económico] de la UE) fue muy favorable a los países nórdicos y ellos se alínean arriba en las calificaciones de la agenda de Lisboa. Y ahora, en marzo, los líderes de la UE dedicarán su cumbre en parte a aprender de los países nórdicos.

Como sueco, de alguna manera eso me hace orgulloso y feliz. Pero, por otra parte, mirando las contradicciones, me siento obligado a precisar que si bien algunas cosas valen la pena ser copiadas de Suecia, otras deben ser evitadas completamente.

Hay dos buenas Suecias de las que hay que aprender: Una es el país enormemente exitoso que pasó literalmente de los harapos a la riqueza entre 1890 y 1950, con una de las tasas de crecimiento [de la producción] más altas del mundo. Sin duda eso ocurrió en buena medida [Nota: Se cambió la frase anterior porque es muy confusa en el original] gracias a una presión tributaria [carga tributaria] entre 10 y 20 por ciento del PIB, a un estado verdaderamente limitado, con las fronteras abiertas y a condiciones muy buenas para los empresarios.

O la Suecia que comenzó a reformarse en los años 90. Las tasas impositivas marginales fueron recortadas, los mercados fueron desregulados, el banco central fue hecho independiente, las pensiones públicas fueron recortadas substancialmente y una cierta libre competencia fue permitida en cuidados médicos. Los bonos escolares fueron introducidos -- éstos son polémicos en los E.E.U.U. -- y los mercados fueron desregulados, el ejemplo primero son las telecomunicaciones, abriéndose el camino para el desarrollo de Ericsson y a una reducción de algo así como 75 por ciento del precio de las llamadas telefónicas. Esto condujo a un crecimiento más alto [de la producción] y aumentó la prosperidad por varios años alrededor del cambio de milenio.

Pero hay también otra Suecia, un país del que uno puede aprender mucho, pero que definitivamente no debe imitar. Ese el país que introdujo una versión extrema del modelo social europeo de estado grande. La presión impositiva fue aumentada desde 20 por ciento [de la producción] en 1950 a cerca de  50 por ciento en el año 80. El estado monopolizó servicios de bienestar y la Seguridad Social. El mercado de trabajo fue regulado altamente.

La experiencia sueca al caminar este camino es que éste es un callejón sin salida. Es incluso contraproducente. Y en lo que respecta a modelo, al estado grande, Suecia no se ha reformado. La presión impositiva sigue siendo la más alta de Europa. Desde que los impuestos alcanzaran dicho nivel, el crecimiento ha estado declinando. Si Suecia fuera un estado en los E.E.U.U., sería la quinto más pobre. Durante los últimos 15 años, el crecimiento anual del promedio ha sido 1.4 por ciento -- más bajo que el promedio para los E.E.U.U., la OCDE y la UE.

El empleo se ha desarrollado muy pobremente. Hay nueve millones de personas de en Suecia, y unos 1.5 millones de personas en edad de trabajar no van a un trabajo. El desempleo total no oficial es cercano al 20 por ciento. En la UE de los 15 entre 1995 y 2003, el empleo creció más en 11 países de dicha UE que en Suecia. En 2004, según UNCTAD, solamente 12 países de 183 examinados tenían una salida neta de inversiones -- la base de cualquier creación de puestos de trabajo -- y uno de ellos era Suecia.

Así, mucha gente es dependiente en el estado. Jubilación anticipada, incapacidades por enfermedad, desempleo, programas de trabajo temporal para el mercado-- hay muchas categorías. El empleo está disminuyendo y la dependencia del estado está aumentando. Cerca de 60 por ciento de la población adulta es hasta cierto punto dependiente del estado.

Y de hecho, esos servicios de bienestar que se dijo serían beneficiados por el monopolio público y un estado grande se están deteriorando. A pesar de un aumento de casi 70 por ciento en el gasto desde 1979, el sistema público del cuidado de salud de Suecia se está rompiendo por las costuras. La Asociación Sueca de Autoridades Locales y de Regiones divulga que los doctores ven un promedio de cuatro pacientes al día, un descenso respecto a nueve en 1975. El número de las camas del hospital se ha reducido un 80 por ciento desde 1975. Más del 50 por ciento de pacientes tienen que esperar más de 12 semanas para un examen  y luego por lo menos 12 semanas más parael tratamiento. Las escuelas públicas y el cuidado público de las personas mayores también experimentan grandes problemas.

Éstos son todos resultados naturales de este supuesto "modelo social". El estado grande detiene la prosperidad y mejores estándares de vida. En este aspecto , otros países -- en la UE o dondequiera en el mundo -- no deben copiar a Suecia.

Tristemente, las reformas orientadas al mercado [a la liberalización] que fueron en gran parte introducidas a principio de los años 90 han acabado. Prácticamente nadie desea echarlas atrás, los mercados más libres que fueron introducidos parecen permanecer. Pero ningunas nuevas reformas en el mismo espíritu casi se han introducido en los diez años pasados, a excepción del llamado impuesto a la muerte [death tax], que fue suprimido en 2005. Puede haber varias razones de esto: un cambio en el gobierno en 1994 hacia los social demócratas tradicionales y al hecho de que las reformas coincidieron con una recesión económica subsiguiente el estado grande fracasado de los años 70 y del 80s.

Pero los hechos siguen siendo: no se introducen ningunas nuevas reformas en Suecia y los efectos positivos de las viejas se están descolorando. Durante el año pasado, según el índice de la libertad económica de Fundación Heritage y Wall Street Journal , 18 países de la UE aumentaron su libertad económica, pero Suecia tenía la calificación más baja en cinco años. Ahora, la necesidad más grande es que Suecia recupere el ímpetu de la reforma y que pueda aprender de otros países europeos, y no al contrario.

El autor es el director de Timbro, un instituto pro economía libre de Suecia. El artículo original Hot Swedish Models!, se encuentra en http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=030106D

Fuentes de datos consignados en los artículos de ANFE en Diario Extra del 9 de octubre del 2006 al 3 de noviembre del 2006.

En la época del comunismo eran frecuentes las estadísticas que mostraban que los países comunistas eran tan ricos o más sino más que los países "capitalistas". Actualmente las estadísticas de producto interno bruto  podrían hacer pensar que en realidad Europa no está tan atrás de los EE.UU. Adam Smith decía que la riqueza se medía por lo que uno puede comprar, y es evidente que en poder de compra los europeos cada vez están más atrás de los EE.UU. Los europeos tal vez conserven una alta productividad del trabajo resultado de la acumulación de capital durante siglos, Europa y los EE.UU. eran los "países desarrollados" desde largo tiempo atrás, su "desarrollo" no se logró a partir los brutales aumentos de impuestos que vinieron luego de la proliferación de IVAs, en general esos países eran considerados "ricos" y "desarrollados" en los 1970s. Pero los impuestos exorbitantes llevan a que los europeos tengan un nivel de vida mucho menor al de los estadounidenses, y la expansión del gobierno y los impuestos, que frenan la producción  mantienen a Europa en el estancamiento económico .

En 1970, Suecia era el cuarto país más rico del mundo, según Swede and Sour http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=060702N , después de Luxemburgo, Suiza y los EE.UU. Pero Suecia, junto con el Japón era el país de mayor crecimiento económico en el período de 100 años 1870-1970: El cuadro FALTA muestra el bajo gasto del gobierno del Japón en su época de "tigre", el gráfico muestra que el gasto del gobierno sueco fue muy bajo durante esos 100 años, empezando a aumentar a principios de los 1950s

40% de los suecos son de "bajos ingresos". En los EE.UU. la cifra es 25%

Según el Wall Street Journal en Europe vs America http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110005242 25% de los estadounidenses son de "bajos ingresos", pero si la misma medida se aplicara a Suecia, resultaría que 40% de los suecos son de bajos ingresos.

Por otra parte, Los afroamericanos, el grupo de menores ingresos en los EE.UU., tienen un ingreso que supera al de los suecos Swede and Sour http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=060702N 

El ingreso mediano de los hogares estadounidenses supera en un 47% al ingreso mediano de los hogares suecos. El ingreso mediano de los hogares suecos, antes de impuestos, es $26.800 contra $39.400 para los hogares estadounidenses... Y eso es antes de impuestos, y Suecia tiene los impuestos más altos del mundo...

 

Se habla mucho de la pobreza de los EE.UU. pero según el Wall Street Journal  Europe vs America http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110005242 en los EE.UU. el 45.9% de los "pobres" es dueño de su casa, 72.8% tiene automóvil y 77% tiene aire acondicianado, que sigue siendo un lujo en Europa.

A contiuación el texto del artículo del Wall Street Journal

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Europe vs. America
Germany edges out Arkansas in per capita GDP.

Sunday, June 20, 2004 12:01 a.m. EDT

The growing split between the U.S. and Europe has been much in the news, mostly on foreign policy. But less well understood is the gap in economic growth and standards of living. Now comes a European report that puts the American advantage in surprisingly stark relief.

The study, "The EU vs. USA," was done by a pair of economists--Fredrik Bergstrom and Robert Gidehag--for the Swedish think tank Timbro. It found that if Europe were part of the U.S., only tiny Luxembourg could rival the richest of the 50 American states in gross domestic product per capita. Most European countries would rank below the U.S. average, as the chart below shows.

The authors admit that man doesn't live by GDP alone, and that this measure misses output in the "black" economy, which is significant in Europe's high-tax states. GDP also overlooks "the value of leisure or a good environment" or the way prosperity is spread across a society.

But a rising tide still lifts all boats, and U.S. GDP per capita was a whopping 32% higher than the EU average in 2000, and the gap hasn't closed since. It is so wide that if the U.S. economy had frozen in place at 2000 levels while Europe grew, the Continent would still require years to catch up. Ireland, which has lower tax burdens and fewer regulations than the rest of the EU, would be the first but only by 2005. Switzerland, not a member of the EU, and Britain would get there by 2010. But Germany and Spain would need until 2015, while Italy, Sweden and Portugal would have to wait until 2022.

Higher GDP per capita allows the average American to spend about $9,700 more on consumption every year than the average European. So Yanks have by far more cars, TVs, computers and other modern goods. "Most Americans have a standard of living which the majority of Europeans will never come anywhere near," the Swedish study says.

But what about equality? Well, the percentage of Americans living below the poverty line has dropped to 12% from 22% since 1959. In 1999, 25% of American households were considered "low income," meaning they had an annual income of less than $25,000. If Sweden--the very model of a modern welfare state--were judged by the same standard, about 40% of its households would be considered low-income.

In other words poverty is relative, and in the U.S. a large 45.9% of the "poor" own their homes, 72.8% have a car and almost 77% have air conditioning, which remains a luxury in most of Western Europe. The average living space for poor American households is 1,200 square feet. In Europe, the average space for all households, not just the poor, is 1,000 square feet.

So what is Europe's problem? "The expansion of the public sector into overripe welfare states in large parts of Europe is and remains the best guess as to why our continent cannot measure up to our neighbor in the west," the authors write. In 1999, average EU tax revenues were more than 40% of GDP, and in some countries above 50%, compared with less than 30% for most of the U.S.

We don't report this with any nationalist glee. The world needs a prosperous, growing Europe, and its relative economic decline is one reason for growing EU-American tension. A poorer Europe lacks the wealth to invest in defense, a fact that in turn affects the willingness of Europeans to join America in confronting global security threats. But at least all of this is a warning to U.S. politicians who want this country to go down the same welfare-state road to decline.

OpinionJournal - Featured Article

 

"Pobreza" en los EE.UU.

Artículo del 9 de septiembre del 2005 en el New York Times indica.

In the Labor Department's latest Consumer Expenditure Survey (2003), the average reported income for the bottom fifth of households was $8,201, while reported outlays came to $18,492 - well over twice that amount. Over the past generation, that discrepancy widened significantly: back in the early 1970's, the poorest fifth's reported spending exceeded income by 40 percent.

Vínculo: FALTA

Costo de seguros de salud

Costo seguro salud para no fumador de 30 años: $54 mensuales, Long Beach, California. $344.09 mensuales, New York City.(seguros similares)

Investment Business Daily reporta que en una encuesta realizada por eHealthInsurance, se buscó el precio de un seguro de salud para un no fumador de 30 años. La prima más barata fue en Long Beach, California, con un costo de $54 mensuales. La más cara fue en la ciudad de New York con un costo de $344.90 mensuales.

¿La razón de tan exorbitante diferencia de precio? En New York obligan a la gente a pagar cobertura para todo tipo de dolencias, como las que cura un quiropráctico o un acupunturista. 

Para colmo de males no se permite la compra de seguros entre estados de la Unión Americana, violando las cláusulas constitucionales de libre comercio.

Obsérvese que $54 son cerca de 11.000 colones mensuales.

El vínculo es http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2006-04/2006-04.shtml#244 se transcribe el texto integral

Monday, April 24, 2006 ~ 8:51 a.m., Dan Mitchell Wrote:
Jurisdictional competition needed to control costly health care regulations. Investors' Business Daily comments on the big differences in health care premiums among states. Not surprisingly, intrusive regulations and mandates are a big reason why health insurance costs so much in places like New York and New Jersey. The best way of solving this problem is to restore the Constitution's protection of interstate commerce by allowing consumers to buy lower-cost health insurance from market-oriented states that don't impose costly regulations:

State-to-state differences in premiums can be dramatic, especially in the market for individual coverage. A survey last year by the online insurance marketplace eHealthInsurance compared the price for similar policies in 50 cities and found a roughly sixfold difference between the cheapest and most expensive. A policy for a single 30-year-old, nonsmoker that cost $54 a month in Long Beach, Calif., went for $334.09 in New York City. ... states...add to insurers' costs by adding mandated coverage for specified services, illnesses or types of practitioners, such as acupuncturists and chiropractors. Some, such as New York, keep premiums extra high for the healthy with guaranteed-issue and community-rating laws. These are meant to spread the cost of insuring the sickest patients, but they've have had the unintended consequence of pricing young people with modest incomes out of the market. We're not holding our breath for over-regulated states to change their policies, at least not without a competitive jolt. And as long as Washington leaves health insurance in the hands of state legislatures and commissioners, there will be no effective national insurance market and no effective competition. So it's time to treat the marketing of health coverage as interstate commerce - which it truly is, in the Internet Age - and allow policy sales across state lines. Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., has introduced a bill to that effect (the "Health Care Choice Act," H.R. 2355), and passing it should be a priority for Congress this year.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=20&artnum=3&iss ue=20060418

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2005-05/2005-05.shtml#184

Un estudio del Council for Affordable Health Insurance (CAHI) identificó más de 1800 mandatos (obligaciones de asegurar) impuestos a las compañías de seguros. CAHI introdujo 295 nuevas coberturas en estados a través del país. El estudio es Health Insurance Mandates in the States 2005 (Seguros obligatorios de salud en los estados, 2005 )

Estos son algunos de los resultados que encuentra el estudio.

Un seguro obligatorio ("mandate" en inglés) es un requisito gubernamental que obliga a asegurarse para riesgos comunes pero también para riesgos no tan comunes. Ejemplos de "mandatos" son:

El seguro debe cubrir los servicios no solamente de quiroprácticos y podiatras, sino también de trabajadores sociales y masajes terapéuticos. Mamografías, cuidado infantil, abuso de alcohol e incluso acupuntura y protesis de cabello (¡pelucas!)

En cualquier servicio médico siempre aparecen personas que quieren que se obligue a las personas a asegurarse contra algo, logrando así más clientela para muchas actividades de cuidado médico.

1 de cada 4 individuos que no tienen seguro no lo tiene por el costo de los mandatos.

Hay otras cosas que afecta el seguro: Se obliga a las compañías a aceptar el seguro de la gente muy enferma.  Entonces la gente joven y saludable 

Otro problema es que si paga el seguro, se usa el dinero de otro. Si usted necesita un servicio médico, y está asegurado, tratará de que el servicio sea lo más caro posible. En cambio, si paga usted, de su bolsa, tratará de ser muy comedido. Si se obliga a las personas a asegurarse casi contra cualquier riesgo, las personas terminarán usando servicios muy caros, porque en casi todo "paga el seguro", paga otro, no es necesario cuidar el dinero.

 

Datos varios sobre Suecia.

Hot Swedish Models!
Johnny Munkhammar, director de TIMBRO, http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=030106D

Sweden is a country of many economic and political contradictions: the highest tax pressure in the Western world and low corporate taxes, school vouchers and state-run universities, a regulated economy but a free private sphere. In short, part socialism, part market economy -- part big state and part freedom.

The Nordic countries, and perhaps Sweden in particular, are now often cited as countries to learn from for the rest of the EU. A word like "flexicurity" has been invented, the Sapir report (a panel tasked by the European Commission with assessing the prospects for EU growth) was very favorable to the Nordic countries and they rank high in Lisbon Agenda scorecards. And now, in March, EU leaders will devote their summit in part to learning from the Nordic countries.

As a Swede, in a way that makes me proud and happy. But on the other hand, looking at the contradictions, I feel obliged to point out that some if things are worth copying from Sweden others should be entirely avoided.

There are two good Swedens to learn from: One is the hugely successful country that literally went from rags to riches between 1890 and 1950, with one of the highest growth rates in the world. This was not least thanks to a tax pressure between 10 and 20 percent of GDP, a truly limited state, with open borders and very good conditions for entrepreneurs.

Or there is the Sweden that started reforming in the 1990s. Marginal tax rates were cut, markets were deregulated, the Central Bank was made independent, public pensions were cut substantially and some free competition was allowed in health care. School vouchers were introduced -- still even controversial in the US -- and markets were deregulated, the prime example being telecom, opening up for the development of Ericsson and a something like 75 percent decrease in the price for phone calls. This led to a higher growth and increased prosperity for several years around the Millennium shift.

But there is also another Sweden, a country that one can learn much from, but should definitely not imitate. It is the country that introduced an extreme version of the European Social Model of a big state. The tax pressure was raised from 20 percent in 1950 to some 50 percent in 1980. The state monopolized welfare services and social security. The labor market was highly regulated.

The Swedish experience from walking this path is that it is a dead-end. It is even counter-productive. And when it comes to this model, the big state, Sweden has not reformed. The tax pressure is still the highest in Europe. Ever since the taxes reached this level, growth has been declining. If Sweden were a state in the US, it would be the fifth poorest. During the past 15 years, average annual growth has been 1.4 percent -- lower than the average for the US, the OECD and the EU.

Employment has been developing very poorly. There are nine million people in Sweden, and some 1.5 million people of working age don't go to a job. The unofficial total unemployment is some 20 percent. In the EU-15 between 1995 and 2003, employment grew more in 11 EU countries than in Sweden. In 2004, according to UNCTAD, only 12 countries out of 183 in the survey had a net outflow of investments -- the basis for any job creation -- and one of them was Sweden.

Thus, many people are dependent on the state. Early retirement, sick leave, unemployment, temporary labor-market programs -- there are many categories. Employment is decreasing and dependency on the state is rising. About 60 percent of the adult population is to some extent dependent on the state.

And indeed, those welfare services that were said to benefit from public monopolies and a big state are deteriorating. Despite an increase of almost 70 percent in spending since 1979, Sweden's public health-care system is coming apart at the seams. The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions reports that doctors see an average of four patients a day, down from nine in 1975. The number of hospital beds is down by 80 percent since 1975. More than 50 percent of patients have to wait over 12 weeks for an examination and then at least 12 more weeks for treatment. Public schools and public elderly care also experience great problems.

These are all natural results from this so-called social model. The big state stands in the way of prosperity and better living standards. In this regard, other countries -- in the EU or anywhere in the world -- should not copy Sweden.

Sadly, the market-oriented reforms that largely were introduced in the beginning of the 1990s have come to an end. Practically nobody wants to roll them back, the freer markets that were introduced seem to remain. But no new reforms in that same spirit have been introduced for almost the last ten years, with the exception of the so-called death tax, which was abolished in 2005. There may be several reasons for this: a shift in government in 1994 to traditional Social Democrats and the fact that the reforms coincided with an economic recession following the failed big state of the 1970s and 80s.

But the facts remain: no new reforms are introduced in Sweden and the positive effects of the old ones are fading. During the last year, according to the Index of Economic Freedom by the Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal, 18 EU countries increased their economic freedom, but Sweden had the lowest score in five years. Now, the greatest need is for Sweden to regain reform momentum and can learn from other European countries, not the other way around.

The author is the Director of Timbro, a free-market institute in Sweden.

TCS Daily - Hot Swedish Models!


EstadounidensesSientenQueTienenMuchoMayorControlSobreSusVidasQueEuropeos32%EUA-68%Alemania-Antes41%-59%.

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2004-10/2004-10.shtml#114

UECadavezMasAtrasDeEUA-91-2003-EUA-47%-UE-28%

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2004-10/2004-10.shtml#101

 

The Market Center Blog -- April 2006 Archives

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Europeos, hipócritamente, incumplen, por amplios márgenes, los objetivos de Kyoto 

A las 7:33 de la mañana del martes 27 de junio de 2006, Dan Mitchell  escribió

Europeos Hipócritamente incumplen, por amplios márgenes, los objetivos de Kyoto : Políticos de lugares como Francia y Alemania reprimendan severamente [berate] a menudo a los Estados Unidos por rechazar el estatista tratado de Kyoto y de esa manera no ser un “buen ciudadano global.” Pero el EU Observer precisa que la Unión Europea elige convenientemente (y sabiamente) no conformarse con el protocolo anti-crecimiento económico:

Nuevas cifras divulgadas el jueves figuras  revelan que la Unión Europea (EU) está muy lejos de alcanzar los objetivos de emisiones [de gases] acordados bajo el tratado internacional del cambio del clima, el protocolo de Kyoto. En cambio, la contaminación con gases de invernadero aumentó por segundo año consecutivo, según la agencia basada en Copenhague European Environment Agency … España e Italia son los más grandes "pecadores verdes" al tener los mayores aumentos de gases, 19.7 (el 4.8%) y 5.1 (el 0.9%) millones de toneladas respectivamente. http://euobserver.com/9/21944/?rk=1

Tuesday, June 27, 2006 ~ 7:33 a.m., Dan Mitchell Wrote:
Hypocritical Europeans miss Kyoto targets by large margins.
Politicians from places like France and Germany often berate the United States for rejecting the statist Kyoto treaty and thus not being a "good global citizen." But the EU Observer points out that the European Union conveniently (and wisely) chooses not to comply with the anti-growth Protocol:

New figures released on Thursday have revealed that the EU is falling far short of reaching its emissions targets under the international climate change treaty, the Kyoto Protocol. Instead greenhouse gas pollution rose for the second year in a row, according to the Copenhagen-based European Environment Agency. ...Spain and Italy were the biggest green sinners with the largest emission increases having plus 19.7 (4.8 %) and 5.1 (0.9 %) million tonnes respectively.
http://euobserver.com/9/21944/?rk=1

El vínculo es http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2006-06/2006-06.shtml#271  

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MCB-WSJ-EdwardPrescottAlegaReducirMasImpuestos-AlemaniaSeHundiraMasEnSu 

EdadOscuraDeAltosImpuestosAltoDesempleoEstancamiento-

CadaAumentoDeLasGananciasDeCapitalEsUnImpuestoALaVitalidadEmpresarial

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2005-12/2005-12.shtml#222

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MCB-WSJ-HogaresEUACadaVezMasRicos-6deCada10TienenAcciones-

2DeCada3TienenCasas-LaFamiliaPromedioTieneUnValorPromedioSuperiorA$100,000-

ElIngresoMedianoHogarEs$54,000-El%DeFamiliasConIngresos

Entre$5.000Y$50.000HaEstadoAumentando-MovilidadHaciaArribaEsLaReglaNoLaExcepcion

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2005-12/2005-12.shtml#222

----------------------------------------------------

 -------------- Fuentes de los datos mostrados en Diario Extra

Si los EE.UU. fueran el país agobiado por la pobreza que se dice que es, no serían tantos los costarricenses y europeos que intentan trasladarse al hermano país. Nicholas Eberstadt, de American Enterprise Institute, señalaba, en el 2005 en el New York Times, que mientras la encuesta de la Oficina de Trabajo de los EE.UU. arrojó que los hogares estadounidenses que forman la quinta parte de los hogares de menores ingresos ganaban $8.201 (4.200.000 colones) anuales, según dicha encuesta, esos hogares gastaban $18.492 (9.600.000) anuales, la bicoca de 800.000 colones mensuales. ¿Cuál dato creer? Pero aun si el ingreso promedio de esos hogares fuera tan bajo como $8.201 anuales, cosa poco probable, eso representaría la bicoca de 355.000 colones mensuales.

Fuente: New York Times

 

Suecia, Europa

 

http://www.elpais.es/articulo/elpporsoc/20060314elpepisoc_3/Tes/sociedad/Europa/pierde/carrera/educacion/frente/Estados/Unidos/Japon

 

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Impuestos a la seguridad social son causa principal de economía subterránea

 

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2006-09/2006-09.shtml#274

 

A las 8:39 mañana del miércoles 27 de septiembre de 2006, Dan Mitchell escribió:  Ignorando la  investigación que encuentra que tasas impositivas más bajas son la clave para reducir la economís subterránea, el plan "Treasury Gap" del Ministerio de Hacienda busca dar más poder al IRS [Oficina Recaudadora de Impuestos]. El departamento del Hacienda de los E.E.U.U. ha publicado un nuevo plan (http://www.treas.gov/press/  los lanzamientos/los informes/otptaxgapstrategy%20final.pdf) para aumentar la recaudación del impuesto, y se menciona de paso que un sistema tributario mejor reduciría la economía informal, pero el informe esencialmente búsca crear un IRS más opresivo. Los burócratas deberían rasgar dicho informe y en cambio leer un nuevo estudio de la autoridad principal del mundo en economía subterránea:   

En casi todos los estudios se ha descubierto, que el impuesto y las cargas de la contribución de Seguridad Social son una de las causas principales para la existencia de la economía subterránea. Puesto que los impuestos afectan las decisiones de trabajo-ocio, y también estimulan la oferta de trabajo en la economía subterránea, la distorsión de la carga tribtaria [producida por la economía subterránea] es una preocupación importante de los economistas. Cuanto más grande es la diferencia entre el coste total del trabajo en la economía oficial y las ganancias después de impuestos (a la planilla), mayor es el incentivo para evitar esta diferencia y  trabajar en la economía subterránea. Puesto que esta diferencia depende ampliamente de la carga/pagos de la Seguridad Social y la carga de impuesto total, son características dominantes de la existencia y del aumento de la economía subterránea … Los resultados empíricos de la influencia de la carga tributaria en la economía subterránea la proporcionan los estudios de Schneider (1994b, 2000, 2004, 2005) y Johnson, Kaufmann y Zoido-Lobatón (1998a, 1998b); todos encontraron evidencia estadística significativa de la influencia de los impuestos en la economía subterránea.

 

       http://www.econ.jku.at/Schneider/ShadEconomyCorruption_2006_Pickhardt .pdf

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Los trabajadores estadounidenses se benefician del desarrollo económico, pero los impuestos de seguridad social consumen el ingreso adicional.

Por qué los cuidados de salud son caros en los EE.UU. amerita un documento por aparte. Pero básicamente existe el problema de que "se paga con la plata de otro". Hay un chiste en en que el médico le dice al paciente: "Tómese dos aspirinas y llámeme mañana. En cuanto a la cuenta, si usted paga, son $10. Si paga el seguro, son $600".

Las medidas estatistas, Medicare y Medicaid por ejemplo, han llevado a un incremento enorme del costo de salud en los EE.UU.  Pero rubros que NO son cubiertos por la seguridad social, y que se pagan de la bolsa del paciente, como las cirugías plásticas, no han aumentado de precio.

En los EE.UU. ocurre la degradación típica de los sectores públicos: Como la salud se paga con la plata de otros, o sea, con la plata del gobierno, los precios suben y suben, porque la plata de otros rara vez se gasta bien.

El vínculo es http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2006-10/2006-10.shtml#041 . Se transcribe el texto en inglés

Wednesday, October 4, 2006 ~ 7:45 a.m., Sven Larson Wrote:
Americans benefit from economic growth, but health care chews up additional income. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show, at least at first glance, that American families are no better off now than they were in the late '90s. However, as Bruce Bartlett explains for the National Review Online, individual families persistently migrate upwards through the income layers. Also, a larger share of worker compensation is used to buy health care, something that would not be possible if incomes were truly stagnant, but also an indictment of the problems in the health care system caused by excessive government intervention and the concomitant absence of market forces:

On the surface, it would appear that workers should be in open revolt. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average worker is no better off today than he was seven years ago in real terms. In August 2006, his average weekly earnings were $275.49. In August 1999, they were $275.61. (Both statistics are in constant 1982 dollars.) ...the rising cost of health benefits is a key reason for the flatness of average worker wages. From the point of view of employers, total labor costs have risen sharply. But all of the increase has gone into benefits, leaving nothing left over to raise wages. Workers may not like this fact, but they accept its reality. According to the BLS, wages and salaries have fallen from 72.6 percent of total compensation in 2000 to 70 percent in June of this year. At the same time, health benefits have risen from 5.9 percent of compensation to 7.7 percent. ...Finally, despite wage and income stagnation at the macro level, people continue to move out of the working class into the middle and upper classes. According to the Census Bureau, the percentage of all households with an income below $25,000 per year (in 2005 dollars) fell to 27.1 percent last year from 27.6 percent in 2004. In 1995, 28.9 percent fell into this income class. In 1985, the percentage was 30.5 percent and in 1975 it was 33.1 percent. At the same time, the percentage of households that are considered well-to-do - those with an income above $75,000 (in 2005 dollars) - rose to 28.3 percent last year from 27.9 percent in 2004. In 1995, only 24.4 percent of households had that much income, up from 20.2 percent in 1985 and 14 percent in 1975.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OGEzYTg0MzNmMGU5OWYzNjQ0O TUwOGJkMjI2MTBjYzU=

The Market Center Blog -- October 2006 Archives

A continuación, una traducción al español del texto anterior.

A las 7:45 de la mañana del miércoles 4 de octubre de 2006, Sven Larson escribió: Los estadounidenses se benefician del desarrollo económico, pero el cuidado médico consume el ingreso adicional.

Los datos recientes de la oficina de la estadística de trabajo demuestran, por lo menos a primera vista, que las familias estadounidenses no están mejor ahora que en los últimos años de los 90s. Sin embargo, como Bruce Bartlett explica para National Review on Line, las familias individuales emigran persistentente hacia arriba en la escala social. También, una parte más grande de la remuneración del trabajador se utiliza para comprar cuidado médico, algo que no sería posible si las rentas en verdad estuvieran estancadas, pero esto es también una  muestra de los problemas en el sistema del cuidado médico, causado por la intervención excesiva del gobierno y la ausencia concomitante de las fuerzas de mercado:

Superficialmente, se pensaría que los trabajadores deberían estar en rebelión abierta. Según la oficina de estadísticas de trabajo (BLS) , el trabajador medio no está mejor hoy que lo que estaba hace siete años en términos reales. En agosto de 2006, sus ganancias semanales medias eran $275.49. En agosto de 1999, eran $275.61. (Ambas estadística son en dólares constantes de  1982.)… el costo creciente de los subsidios por enfermedad es una razón dominante de la llanura de los salarios medios del trabajador. Desde el punto de vista de patronos, los costes de trabajo del total  han aumentado agudamente. Pero todo el aumento se ha dio en subsidios a entrado las ventajas, dejando nada del excecente para aumentar los salarios. Los trabajadores pueden no gustar de este hecho, pero aceptan su realidad. Según el BLS, los salarios y los sueldos han caído a partir de 72.6 por ciento de remuneración total en 2000 a 70 por ciento en junio de este año. Al mismo tiempo, las subsidios por enfermedad se han levantado de 5.9 por ciento de la remuneración a 7.7 por ciento. … Finalmente, a pesar de el estancamiento a nivel macro, la gente continúa moviéndose de la clase obrera a las clases medias y altas. Según la Oficina de Censo, el porcentaje de los hogares con una renta debajo de $25.000 por año (en  dólares del 2005) bajó a 27.1 por ciento el año pasado a partir de 27.6 por ciento en 2004. En 1995, 28.9 por ciento estaban en este grupo de ingreso [bajo $25.000]. En 1985, el porcentaje era 30.5 por ciento y en 1975 era 33.1 por ciento. Al mismo tiempo, el porcentaje de hogares que se consideran "acomodados", aquellos con una renta sobre $75.000 (en dólares del 2005) - se levantó a 28.3 por ciento el año pasado a partir de 27.9 por ciento en 2004. En 1995, solamente 24.4 por ciento de casas tenían dicho ingreso [mayor a $75.000] tasa superior al 20.2 por ciento en 1985 y al 14 por ciento de 1975.

       http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OGEzYTg0MzNmMGU5OWYzNjQ0O TUwOGJkMjI2MTBjYzU=

AEI informa sobre cómo se ensancha ventaja de EE.UU. sobre Europa

Buena parte de los datos de cómo los EUA agrandan su ventaja sobre Europa provienen de un ensayo del  American Enterprise Institute y se encuentran en http://taemag.com/issues/articleID.18720/article_detail.asp

Los europeos frecuentemente pretenden que su "superioridad cultural", "superior modelo social", etcétera, va a hacer que muchos estadounidenses se trasladen a Europa. Pero precisamente lo contrario ocurre, Europa sigue siendo el viejo continente aristocrático de donde la gente se traslada a la tierra de la esperanza: Los Estados Unidos de América.

  Como dicen los newyorkinos: Europa es un gran lugar para visitar, pero vivir allí ... Forget about it! (olvídelo).

 La noción de que Europa iba a dejar atrás a los EE.UU. en el 2010 (agenda de Lisboa) ya no la toman en serio ni siquiera los mismos europeos.

 Y hasta la famosa "dominación cultural europea" es casi cosa del pasado.  Por ejemplo Hollywood y la música estadounidense dominan el mercado europeo. Incluso una industria en que la aristocrática Europa había dominado marcadamente sobre los proletarios EE.UU., la moda, empieza a ser cada vez más dominada por los EE.UU.

Europa tiene hoy solamente el 7% de la población mundial, mientras que en 1950 tenía el 12%. Europa producía en el 1998 el 20% del PIB mundial, mientras que en 1913 producía el 35%. Los EE.UU., en cambio, han conservado aproximadamente el 22% del PIB mundial en el período 1913-1998.

A pesar de el enorme desempleo, en Europa hay escasez de trabajadores técnicos. Sistemáticamente la participación laboral es menor en Europa.

El desempleo entre los jóvenes supera el 20%, Europa es un continente que envejece, que vive para las personas mayores.

Europa mantiene la esperanza de ser una super-potencia que balancee a los poderosos Estados Unidos. Pero, las tendencias demográficas parecen alentar poco esa posibilidad.

La tasa de nacimientos en Europa es la menor que jamás se ha registrado en tiempos de paz en una región importante del mundo. (ver http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.21543/pub_detail.asp )

La tasa de fertilidad es de solamente dos tercios de la tasa necesaria para mantener constante la población en el largo plazo. La población europea es también la más "canosa", con una edad mediana de 40 años y con 1 de cada 6 ciudadanos de 65 años de edad o más. Y la tendencia, en ausencia de inmigraciones masivas, es a envejer aún más.

 En países como Italia, Alemania y España, el aumento de la población es bajísimo. Pero los europeos cada vez más salen de sus "infiernos fiscales": En los últimos 3 años, el número de estadounidenses nacidos en Europa (incluyendo Europa del Este), aumentó en 700.000

  ¿La razón del desempeño miserable de Europa, especialmente de los grandes países de Europa Occidental? El enorme gobierno (ver http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2006-01/2006-01.shtml#262 )

  La columna del Wall Street Journal cuyo vínculo se da arriba  indica que el empleo es uno de los mayores fracasos de Europa (especialmente países grandes) . El mercado laboral estadounidense genera millones de empleos cada año y está lo más cerca posible al empleo pleno..

Para terminar, vale la pena repetir, que mientras que los EE.UU. desde 1970 han creado cerca de 57 millones de nuevos empleos, Europa apenas ha creado cerca de 4 millones de empleos, la mayoría de ellos en el sector público.

 Texto original en inglés

America Still Beckons ( publicado en el sitio web del American Enterprise Institute http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.18720/article_detail.asp )
By Joel Kotkin

The American dream may be a musty old relic in the minds of some American elites, but for Annique Lambe—who arrived in the U.S. 12 years ago from Ireland—it is alive and well. Now a schoolteacher in Manhattan, she marvels at the energy and opportunity that she and other friends who are also recent immigrants from Europe have found on these shores. “New York is a huge place where something is always happening,” she says in a soft Irish lilt. “Now I am a part of it, living among the big towers and the skyline. It seems miraculous to me.”

From the seventeenth century on, waves of immigrants from the European continent played a primary role in forming America. It was not mainly the rich, powerful, or well-connected of Europe who came, but those of a more modest station. A simple working person in America had a far better chance of rising into the comfortable classes than his European counterpart, and his offspring’s chances were even greater yet. Most new arrivals to America eventually enjoyed a leap upward in quality of life and social mobility.

Yet even as the European masses headed to this side of the Atlantic for a better life, some intellectual and social elites insisted that Europe’s culture was better than anything found in the United States. As an intellectual, cultural, and artistic center, Europe was unsurpassed. That belief remains powerful today. Some, like American writer Richard Florida, have even suggested that some of the brightest and most culturally sophisticated young Americans—the much-ballyhooed “creative class”—may in the future seek their fortunes in Europe. Glowing journalistic anecdotes about cities such as Prague, Berlin, Paris, London, and Dublin have suggested that significant numbers of America’s best and brightest may end up expatriating themselves to the continent.

 

American advantages

 

New Yorkers have a perfect one-word response for such claims: fuggedaboutit. Europe may be a great place to visit, but U.S. emigration to the continent is paltry—while the reverse flow from Europe to the United States remains at consistently high levels even with the somewhat bothersome screenings imposed after 9/11. While Europeans are no longer the primary  immigrants to the U.S. (that role having been taken over by Latin Americans and Asians), they remain an important factor in the continuing re-invention of America.

As in the past, immigrants from France, Italy, Germany and other parts of Europe continue to come to America to participate in an economy that is more dynamic, healthier, and generally more open than what they are leaving behind. America’s economic appeal has been broadened by Europe’s long-term competitive decline; its portion of world GDP dropped from 34 percent to 20 percent between 1913 and 1998, while the United States held its own at about 22 percent of global GDP (even amidst the Third World boom of the last generation).

Most recently, Europe’s position has weakened considerably. Since the 1970s, America has created some 57 million new jobs, compared to just 4 million in Europe (with most of those in government). For the last quarter century, the United States has enjoyed consistently higher rates of economic growth and productivity than European countries, and the gap has been widening. The United States is now at the forefront in many critical global industries, particularly finance, technology, and entertainment.

The future doesn’t look much brighter for the continent. Under current conditions, according to the European Central Bank, the Euro Zone’s overall growth potential is roughly half that of the United States. The wishful notion that the E.U. would overtake the United States as the world’s “most competitive, knowledge-based economy” by 2010, much discussed at the time of European unification, has now been dismissed, even by many Europeans themselves, as wildly over-optimistic.

Under such circumstances, the United States remains a tremendous lure for many Europeans, especially younger, educated individuals. This is particularly true in technological fields, where Europe’s best brains are leaving in droves. Some 400,000 E.U. science and technology graduates currently reside in the United States, and barely one in seven, according to a recent European Commission poll, intend to return. “The U.S. is a sponge that’s happy to soak up talent from across the globe,” observes one Irish scientist.

Similar perspectives can be found in a host of other cutting-edge industries, including financial services, where, with the exception of London, New York has an almost unparalleled global appeal. Attempts to build a new European financial center in Frankfurt—sometimes called “Mainhattan” after the river running through the western German city—or in Paris, have failed to meet even modest expectations.

Finally there is culture. Hollywood and the American music industry have long dominated European markets, despite massive government subsidies for the continent’s culture-based industries. More recently, even once-powerful European cultural industries such as fashion have become more influenced by American designers and ideas.

The European Squeeze

America’s superior per capita income, its leadership of critical global industries, and its higher quality of life are reflected in everything from housing space to consumer prices. This is all the more remarkable given that the country continues to absorb poor migrants from across the globe. America’s demographic vitality makes it nearly one of a kind among modern nations.

Thanks to significantly higher fertility rates and immigration, America’s population is growing far faster than Europe’s, particularly Spain’s, Italy’s, and Germany’s. Europe has far more old people than the United States, and a shrinking workforce. Even amidst high unemployment, there remain persistent shortages of technical workers. Overall labor-force participation in the E.U. is well below that of the United States.

Europe’s percentage of the world’s population has now fallen below 7 percent, down from 12 percent in 1950. It is expected to drop to barely 4 percent by 2050. These are not auspicious conditions either for future sales or the supply of ambitious workers. In some European countries, such as Italy, the number of deaths already exceeds births. By 2025, the average age in Europe will be 45, six years older than in the United States. By 2050 many European countries—including those of the former eastern bloc—could suffer loss of population.

Europe remains home to the world’s greatest historic cities, but many of them are losing people, too. Many American cities have enjoyed healthy population increases—not just sunbelt capitals like Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Houston but also older cities like New York City (largely due to immigration). Growing communities are generally friendlier for both employers and job-seekers.

These demographic factors place Europeans at a disadvantage. Since much of the immigration to Europe comes from poorly educated (for the most part) workers from Africa and the Middle East, it has not appreciably increased the continent’s supply of skilled workers. There is also deep-seated hostility to the newcomers among natives; nearly a third of E.U. citizens describe themselves as decidedly “prejudiced” against the continent’s current immigrants. In addition, the powerful welfare state mechanisms in Europe tend to keep both newcomers and displaced native workers out of the workforce and on the dole, further exacerbating the pressures on the economy and the social resentments.

To a large extent, Europe has also turned its back on new industries and younger people, choosing security for the current population over future opportunity. So despite large numbers of retiring workers in France, for instance, unemployment among the young has been rising—with joblessness among workers in their twenties now well exceeding 20 percent. The European welfare state also forces younger workers to pay heavily for a radically escalating number of pensioners and benefit recipients. Since 1970, Germany’s ranks of unemployed and retired have soared by some 80 percent, while the working population grew by a mere 4 percent. This is one reason why taxes are so high on German and other European wage earners.

Moving to America

Amidst all this, it is perhaps not surprising that a powerful new wave of European immigration to the U.S. is taking place. This trend began in the 1980s, with fashionable affluents from West European capitals, and expanded to include many Eastern Europeans after the fall of communism. The wave has gradually grown to include Russian Jews, refugees from the Balkans, and new Italian, German, British, Greek, Polish, and other immigrants. Eastern European immigrants constituted one out of four New York immigrants in the late 1990s. They have also become an important factor in places like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston. Even relatively out of the way places like Utica, New York and St. Louis have been revitalized by waves of European immigrants from new places like Bosnia.

All told, European immigration to the United States jumped by some 16 percent during the 1990s. Europe’s percentage of total immigrants to the U.S. rose crisply between 1998 and 2001. Visa applications dropped after 9/11, but then increased last year by 10 percent. The total number of European-born Americans increased by roughly 700,000 during the last three years, with a heavy inflow from the former Soviet Union, the former Yugoslavia, Romania, and France. These new immigrants have dispersed across many parts of the country, but have been especially drawn to New York, California, and Florida. Today’s westward human flow across the Atlantic is more critical to the future of the United States than mere numbers can indicate. In contrast to many of our other immigrants, newcomers from Europe, particularly those under 40, tend to be highly educated. And while frivolous “Eurotrash” socialites may gain the attention of the press, most young European migrants are hard-working, professionally serious, and ambitious.

New York City, the traditional center of European immigration, provides an excellent case in point. An analysis of recent census numbers indicates that white immigrants to New York (the vast majority of whom are from Europe) represent the largest number of contributors to the net growth of educated young people in the city. Without the disproportionate contributions of these young Europeans, New York would actually have suffered a net outflow of educated people under 35 during the late 1990s. Overall, there are now half a million New York City residents who were born in Europe.

St. Louis is another city that has benefited enormously from European immigration—in its case, the growth of a Bosnian community now estimated at well over 10,000. Since the Bosnians’ appearance on the city’s south side, they have transformed their neighborhoods. South Grand Avenue, once a dying thoroughfare, has been turned by entrepreneurial-minded newcomers into a major center of Bosnian commerce. In typical American style, the community is gradually spreading to the city’s sprawling suburbs.

“When we got here, South St. Louis was a city of ghosts. But we were survivors,” notes Bosnian immigrant and entrepreneur Amir Holtic. “You drop a Bosnian on the moon and he’ll survive. We are the people who help give the city a future.”

 

Open Culture and Hot Economics

As Holtic would be quick to point out, an economy is driven, more than anything else, by the energies of people who can still dream. Although many American intellectuals and urbanites hold European cities in higher regard than our own, many young everyday Europeans have discovered that American metropolises are often more exciting, more liveable, and, most important of all, better places to find opportunities for upward mobility.

Many young European professionals slide easily into New York because it is one of the few places in America that continues to feature concentrated European immigrant neighborhoods

like Astoria (Greek), Bensonhurst (Italian), Brighton Beach (Russian), Sunnyside (Irish), and Greenpoint (Polish). Although most young immigrants do not live in these traditional areas, they rely on associations and grapevine networks based there, they find familiar places of worship in these areas, they dine (and work) at local restaurants, and place ads in, and read, newspapers that originate in these locales.

New York’s long history of Irish settlement offered Annique Lambe a ready-made entry point. “The Irish history goes a long way here,” Lambe notes. “ I met an Irishman at a bar my second day in New York. Instantly, the fact that I was Irish was enough. I was in, like I was born here.”

But if cultural ties make arrivals in the U.S. relatively painless, it is opportunity that is the real magnet. “In the past,” notes one Polish newspaper editor, “it was freedom of religion or politics that pulled us here. Now it’s the economy.”

Like many former communist countries, Poland has a persistent shortage of good jobs for its large numbers of educated people, and unemployment that ranges above 20 percent. “There are many talented young people in Poland, but not a lot of work,” notes Michael Dabrowski, a Polish trader in his late twenties. “Here there are lots of openings for skilled and energetic people.”

The largest group of newcomers in New York City today hails from the former Soviet Union. In the 1970s, many came to escape oppression. Lately, they have been coming for economic openings. Max Driven, a 29-year-old Russian from St. Petersburg came to New York eight years ago with $500 in his pocket. He now works in real estate and already owns several brownstones in Jersey City. He was amazed by how he was able to leverage properties to buy more properties. “There’s no financing like that in Russia,” he says. “Capital is the key to being here.”

With this common draw of financial reward for astute work, U.S. cities are producing the kind of pan-European melting pot that is all too often only a dream on the European continent. “This is a place for Europeans, “ observes Michael Idov, an immigrant from Latvia who writes in both Russian and English. “Think of all the Brits in the publishing industry. In the art world, every other young person you meet is French or Italian. Most of the Russians are in computer science. It’s a kind of pan-European society.”

 

The Dream Endures

It is a distinctly American dream that brings Europeans to America. For most migrants, America became the place to move after it became apparent that personal re-invention and success were out of reach at home. The hunger for greater socio-economic mobility is strongest among those in business. It is not surprising that ambitious young European professionals prefer the faster-paced economic environment of the United States.

“I love the business culture in New York,” says Volker Detering, a former Green Party activist from Germany who came to New York in 1999. Along with his brother Dietmar, he has founded a thriving Web site business specializing in event planning and networking—something that would be exceedingly difficult to establish and grow in heavily regulated Germany.

For newcomers like Detering, there is a kind of magical appreciation for America that even some natives do not recognize. At a time when less than half of all residents of the New York metropolitan area visit the city center at least five times a year (while three quarters claim their lives are barely affected by what goes on inside Gotham), today’s new Euro-originated New Yorkers reveal an almost unbridled enthusiasm for the city.

“To me, with all its flaws, New York is still the most special place in the world,” exults Max Driven. “Petersburg is nice, but New York has everything; it is everything. It’s the place for your ambitions.”

Beneath the European hostility toward America stirred up by 9/11 and the Afghan and Iraq wars, a much deeper verdict on the United States is being rendered by hundreds of thousands of individual Europeans. These men and women, some of their continent’s most energetic residents, are uprooting themselves for brand new lives in America. The continuing immigration of some of the Old World’s best and brightest suggests that the American experiment has not lost its power. Nor have all Europeans lowered their horizons to a mere steady-state replication of past comforts.

Even now, many Europeans dream fiercely of a better place. And for a surprising number of them, that place is still America.

Joel Kotkin is a senior fellow with the New America Foundation and author of The City: A Global History. This article was written with support from the Newman Real Estate Institute at Baruch College and the Center for an Urban Future in New York City.

The Sweden Myth

By Stephan Karlsson - Publicado en el sitio web del Instituto von Mises http://www.mises.org/story/2259 

Recently, the so-called Swedish model — that is, the Swedish economic system with high taxes and a big welfare state — has been celebrated again in the press.

The alleged recent success of the Swedish economy has allowed welfare statists both inside and outside of Sweden to argue that high taxes and an extensive welfare state are good for the economy. To fully understand this fallacy, we should review Sweden's economic history.

Until the second half of the 19th century, Sweden was fairly poor. But far-reaching free market reforms in the 1860s allowed Sweden to benefit from the spreading Industrial Revolution.

And so, during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Sweden saw its economy rapidly industrializing, driven by the many Swedish inventors and entrepreneurs.

During that time, Sweden produced extraordinarily many inventions, given its small population, including: dynamite, invented by Alfred Nobel (who established the Nobel Prize); the self-aligning ball bearing, invented by Sven Wingquist (who used this to create the SKF company); the sun-valve, invented by Gustav Dahlén (who used it to found industrial gas company AGA); the gas absorption refrigerator, invented by Baltzar von Platen (which was later used by Electrolux).

In addition, there were countless non-inventing entrepreneurs during that period: car manufacturers Volvo and Saab, and telecommunications company Ericsson. Indeed, with just a few exceptions, nearly all large Swedish companies were started during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which was not only a period of strong growth, but also the time when the foundation for later economic growth was laid.

Another factor which continued Swedish prosperity was the fact that Sweden was able to stay out of both World Wars, and indeed all other wars as well. Sweden is in fact the country with the longest consecutive period of peace, having fought no war since 1809, when Sweden was invaded by Russia, losing Finland to the invader.

Sweden has thus enjoyed 5 more years of peace than Switzerland, which participated in the Napoleonic wars in 1814. As a result of its free market policies, the resourcefulness of its people, and its successful avoidance of war, Sweden had the highest per-capita income growth in the world between 1870 and 1950, by which time Sweden had become one of the world's richest countries, behind only the United States and Switzerland, and Denmark (who have since also fallen behind because of high taxes).

But the foundation for future trouble had already been created. In 1932, the Social Democrats rose to power in the face of the Great Depression. And like FDR in America and Adolf Hitler in Germany, they started to expand government power over the economy. Until 1932, government spending had been kept below 10% of GDP in Sweden, but the Social Democrats, under their leader Per Albin Hansson, wanted to change this and remake Sweden into a "folkhem" ("people's home"), a term Swedish Social Democrats adopted from the Fascists in Italy.

Even in the early 1950s, Sweden was still one of the freest economies in the world, and government spending relative to GDP was in fact below the American level.

But between 1950 and 1976, Sweden experienced an expansion in government spending unprecedented during a period of peace, with government spending to GDP rising from about 20% in 1950 to more than 50% in 1975. Virtually every year, taxes were increased while the welfare state expanded relentlessly, both in the form of a sharp increase in the number of government employees and ever more transfer payment benefits.

During the first 20 years, this relentless government expansion took place seemingly without ill effect, as Sweden benefited from rapid global growth — although Sweden's growth had already started to slip in relative terms, from well above average to just average. This changed in the 1970s after Olof Palme, from the left wing of the Social Democratic party became Prime Minister. Palme stepped up the socialist transformation in Sweden, rapidly increasing anti-business regulations and sharply increased payroll taxes.

The payroll-tax increases, along with increasing wage demands from unions, made Swedish businesses highly uncompetitive on the global markets, something which Palme decided to solve by devaluing the Swedish krona. As a result, price inflation rose sharply, leading to repeated devaluations. Popular discontent from the economic woes created by the global economic downturn, the massive tax increases, the increased regulations, and the increasing inflation enabled the center right to come into power in 1976, breaking 44 years of uninterrupted Social Democratic rule.

But because the center-right parties were unwilling to push for more radical free-market reforms, the economic woes, including the inflation-devaluation cycle, continued. For this reason, and because the three coalition parties — the conservative Moderate Party, the Liberal Party, and the Center Party — were unable to get along, the Social Democrats returned to power in 1982.

They immediately implemented one "big bang" devaluation of 16%, which they claimed would be the last. They had claimed the same thing before all the previous devaluations, including the 10% devaluation that the center-right government had decided upon the year before. This time it appears that they actually meant it, but as with The Boy Who Cried Wolf, no one believed them.

Inflationary expectations and thus union wage demands remained very high. And in 1985, the government decided to deregulate bank lending. While this reform was necessary in order to improve capital allocation, it had disastrous side effects given the fact that at the time, real interest rates were way below zero after tax and inflation. This caused a massive credit expansion, which in turn helped further aggravate consumer price inflation while also creating a massive stock- and real estate bubble. As the exchange rate remained fixed, Swedish competitiveness was quickly undermined.

After Palme was killed by an unknown assassin in February 1986, pragmatist Ingvar Carlsson became prime minister. Worried that Swedish growth had trailed most other countries, Carlsson's government implemented a number of free-market reforms. Among these were the lifting of all currency controls in 1989 and a tax reform that dramatically reduced marginal tax rates (although they also reduced a number of deductions, including deductions for interest payments). Although these reforms have arguably contributed to improving the long-term economic performance of Sweden, they would contribute to precipitating the deep economic downturn in the early 1990s.

Meanwhile, as the economy started slowing significantly in 1990 after a series of tightening measures, consumer price inflation slowed. With the combination of continued high nominal interest rates, reduced capital gains taxation (and with that, reduced deductions for interest payments) and falling price inflation, real interest rates started rising significantly, helping to end the asset price bubbles. On top of all of this came the oil price shock following Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and an economic downturn in key trading partners such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Finland. The end result was that Sweden slipped into a recession in late 1990.

As Sweden fell into a recession and its highly cyclical government budget balance started to deteriorate rapidly, investor confidence in the Swedish fixed-exchange-rate scheme started to deteriorate rapidly.

And with currency controls abolished a few years ago, the krona was fair game for currency speculators. Unlike in the past, the government was determined not to devalue, and they deemed a return to strict currency controls as unthinkable, so they had no choice but to defend the currency by raising interest rates. But as the currency speculators knew that these interest rate levels could not be sustained, they renewed their attacks, knowing that their gain from a collapsed currency regime would be far greater than the interest rate levels the Riksbank could offer. The end result was that real after-tax interest rates were pushed up into double digit levels — after having been negative just a few years earlier. That in turn deepened the recession further.

In the end, though, the fixed-exchange-rate scheme collapsed in November 1992. The dramatic increase in interest rates and the deep recession had at the same time created a large amount of bad loans, making almost all major banks in effect bankrupt. (The exception was Handelsbanken, known for its more cautious lending practices.) Only after the Swedish government pledged they would bail out the banks with whatever money they needed was a widespread banking collapse averted.

All told, the recession became Sweden's deepest by far since the Great Depression, with GDP in 1993 being 5% lower than in 1990, with employment falling more than 10%, and the budget deficit rising to more than 10% of GDP. By then Sweden had fallen to between 15th and 20th place in international income comparisons, a decline from which it has never
since recovered.

After this deep downturn, Sweden has performed much better for a number of reasons. The 20% decline in the value of the krona in late 1992 gave a strong boost to exports and together with the dramatic lowering of interest rates, this helped kick-start a cyclical recovery in late 1993. Moreover, a number of free market reforms implemented during Ingvar Carlsson and conservative Carl Bildt (who was Prime Minister between 1991 and 1994) had helped raise the structural growth potential of the Swedish economy.

Apart from the already mentioned reforms of reduced marginal tax rates and abolished currency controls, deregulated bank lending and significantly lower inflation, this included privatizations of several state-owned companies and deregulation of several key sectors, including the retail sector, the telecommunications sector and the airline industry. Also, when the massive budget deficit was eliminated, even the Social Democrats realized the need for deep spending cuts, which together with the typical cyclical decline in the burden of spending during booms helped reduce the extremely bloated burden of government spending somewhat.

All of this has helped Sweden recover in relative terms from the stagnation of the 1970s and 1980s and the deep economic downturn in the early 1990s. It is this relative recovery that is now seized upon by the Social Democrats and their sympathizers inside and outside of Sweden when they claim that the Swedish model of high taxes and a big welfare state is successful.

Yet as should be clear, the relative improvement of performance is due not to high taxes (lower now than previously), but to free-market reforms.

The reason Sweden no longer trails the rest of Europe is that these reforms, which have not been implemented in most continental European countries, have made the Swedish economy relatively freer.

And even with these reforms, Sweden has not, in fact, performed better than the rest of Europe. While headline GDP growth has been slightly higher, this advantage disappears when taking into account that Sweden's terms of trade have deteriorated significantly.

And if we exclude heavy-weight laggards Germany and Italy, Sweden has in fact continued to fall behind the Continent, event with Europe's dismal performance compared to most other parts of the world.

If we look beneath the aggregate production figures, we can see deep structural problems. The number of people employed is now 6% lower than in 1990, a weaker development than in any other western economy. By contrast, even with the weak job growth in recent years (by American standards), employment in the United States is 20% higher than in 1990.

And the number of people employed in Sweden is actually lower than in 1980, too. You have to go back to the mid-1970s to find employment numbers lower than the current ones. While total employment has been roughly unchanged since 1975, it masks a significant decline in male employment. And if you look only at the private sector, employment is now at a level lower than in 1950.

Social Democrats still often claim that Sweden has a comparatively high employment rate, but this claim is based on deceptive employment statistics that count as employed many who have been on long-term sick leave or in some other way on the receiving end of transfer payment programs, even though they don't actually work.

Moreover, the "stay at home mom" is very rare in Sweden. Because of the incentives created by the feminist construction of the Swedish welfare system, mothers mostly leave their children at government day care centers. Even if you believe that mothers who stay home to take care of their children are the victims of patriarchical oppression, you cannot deny the childcare takes a lot of work, but only those who take care of other people's children count as employed. By shifting childcare from the home to the public sector, the government further exaggerates Swedish employment figures.

The headline unemployment rate in Sweden is only 5–5.5%, but this number is extremely misleading as it only includes a small number of the people who the government pays not to work. Many unemployed are sent to so-called "labor market political activities" — activities whose only purpose is to reduce the official unemployment rate.

If we ignore this ruse, unemployment is 8%. And if you also include the enormous number of early retirees and people who live off sickness benefits, the real unemployment rate is more like 25%. The number of early retirees is 540,000, more than double the number of officially unemployed. Among non-Western immigrants, the real unemployment rate is higher than 50%.

All of this is exactly what we should expect from transfer payment benefits to people who don't work, from massive payroll taxes, income taxes, and value-added taxes. This has greatly inhibited the growth of a labor-intensive private-service sector that could have provided jobs for many of the unemployed immigrants.

During the most recent year, however, growth has picked up significantly in Sweden. To some extent, this reflects the global cyclical upswing, but there is also a domestic Swedish factor at work here, which has helped push Swedish growth higher than in most European countries. After the painful fiasco of the fixed-exchange-rate regime in 1992, Sweden instead adopted inflation targeting.

Sweden needs Mises: $25

This monetary policy regime seems so far to have been significantly more successful, but the policy is creating new problems. Because of deregulation and increased competition in a number of sectors in recent years, consumer price inflation has been fairly low, indeed below the 2% target most of the time. Food prices, for example, have been falling as fierce competition from low-price chains like Lidl, Netto, and Willys, have forced the major supermarket chains to cut prices in order to keep their customers.

Low prices are good for consumers, of course, but according to the inflation-targeting dogma, too low a rate of price inflation is itself a problem — a problem that must be counteracted with increased monetary inflation. Thus the Riksbank has been forced to push down interest rates dramatically in order to boost money supply enough to help achieve a 2% consumer price inflation rate.

As consumer price inflation is now starting to creep back up toward 2%, it appears that they will be successful, but this will have come at the cost of unleashing an asset price bubble and household debt levels similar to the levels experienced in the late 1980s.

Money supply rose 11.5% in Sweden in the year to May, even higher than the 8.9% seen in the Euro-zone. It is the dramatic acceleration of monetary inflation in 2005 which has temporarily boosted Swedish growth. The timing of this boom is, it should be noted, very convenient for the ruling Social Democrats and their parliamentary allies, the Green Party and the communist Left Party, given the fact that they face an election this year in September.

Ultimately, this artificial boom will have to come to an end, and although the ensuing crisis will likely not be as deep as in the early 1990s, the seemingly impressive Swedish boom will certainly be revealed as a fraud — just as the whole story of the success of the Swedish economic model is a fraud.

Stefan M.I. Karlsson is an economist currently working in Sweden. Read his blog. Send him mail. See his Mises articles. Comment on the Mises blog.

See also "How the Welfare State Corrupted Sweden."

Número de piscinas interiores (indoor swimming pools) por cada 100.000 habitantes.

1 por cada 50.000 habitantes en Europa del Oeste. 1 por cada 300.000 habitantes en Europa del Este http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060718091506.htm

En la ciudad de West Covina, 1 de cada 6 casas tiene piscina http://www.westcov.org/kids/drown.html , más piscinas per cápita que en ningún otro condado.

Palm Springs tiene más piscinas por habitante que ninguna otra área de la nación http://www.ps4rent.com/about.htm

Región tiene más piscinas per cápita que ninguna otra área de Canadá http://www.warpfish.com/jhan/Essay/community.shtml

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http://www.azcentral.com/specials/special06/articles/0927river-squeeze0927.html

There has been some effort to use less water. Car wash places are required to recycle the water used. Industrial and commercial business have some restrictions on how they use water. Residents have little or no knowledge about the water we use or the billions of gallons lost to evaporation from open ponds and swimming pools. Central Arizona has more swimming pools per capita than any where else on the planet.

Realestate developers have been strong in keeping the public from knowing where our water comes from and THAT THIS IS A DESERT we live in. Refrigerated A/C and abundent water has allowed the huge population growth. However, we are fast approaching the critical point of water usage that may well destroy, or at least curtail, the growth in Arizona.Efforts may help get more water from Colo. River

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http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/2005/04/dead_weight.html

Mark Steyn recently hit the nail on the head, taking another angle at European nanny statism. Life over there is more and more like spending your life being a teenager. You have zero choice on everything that matters hugely in your life : education, security and safety, health care, retirement. A huge chunk of your money is taken to impose inefficient, wasteful and corrupt one-size-fits-all 'solutions' to all these.

You are free to spend the rest - the pocket money Nanny is kind enough to leave you as an allowance - on trinkets such as pint-size cars, DVDs, CDs and Michael Moore books. Oh, and don't forget the 20% VAT on those. Thank you.

 

La vida allá es cada vez más como pasarte tu vida siendo un adolescente. Tienes cero posibilidades de escoger en todo lo que tiene una importancia enorme en tu vida: educación, seguridad y seguros, cuidado médico, retiro. Una parte enorme de de tu dinero se toma para imponerte soluciones ineficaces, derrochadoras y corruptas de tipo "el mismo tamaño sirve para todos" .

Quedas libre de gastar el resto [de lo que ganas] .El dinero de bolsillo que te deja el "estado maternal" es suficiente para comprar baratijas como  como coches del tamaño de una lata de cerveza, libros, DVDs, de  CDes de Michael Moore. Y, Oh,  no olvides que debes pagar 20% de IVA sobre éstos.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/17/weekinreview/17bawer.html?ex=1271390400&en=44ea05b3e068feb5&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

April 17, 2005
PERSPECTIVE

We're Rich, You're Not. End of Story.

By BRUCE BAWER

OSLO — THE received wisdom about economic life in the Nordic countries is easily summed up: people here are incomparably affluent, with all their needs met by an efficient welfare state. They believe it themselves. Yet the reality - as this Oslo-dwelling American can attest, and as some recent studies confirm - is not quite what it appears.

Even as the Scandinavian establishment peddles this dubious line, it serves up a picture of the United States as a nation divided, inequitably, among robber barons and wage slaves, not to mention armies of the homeless and unemployed. It does this to keep people believing that their social welfare system, financed by lofty income taxes, provides far more in the way of economic protections and amenities than the American system. Protections, yes -but some Norwegians might question the part about amenities.

In Oslo, library collections are woefully outdated, and public swimming pools are in desperate need of maintenance. News reports describe serious shortages of police officers and school supplies. When my mother-in-law went to an emergency room recently, the hospital was out of cough medicine. Drug addicts crowd downtown Oslo streets, as The Los Angeles Times recently reported, but applicants for methadone programs are put on a months-long waiting list.

In Norway, the standard line is that there must be some mistake, that such things simply should not happen in "the world's richest country." Why do Norwegians have such a wealthy self-image? Partly because, compared with their grandparents (who lived before the discovery of North Sea oil), they are rich. Few, however, question whether it really is the world's richest country.

After I moved here six years ago, I quickly noticed that Norwegians live more frugally than Americans do. They hang on to old appliances and furniture that we would throw out. And they drive around in wrecks. In 2003, when my partner and I took his teenage brother to New York - his first trip outside of Europe - he stared boggle-eyed at the cars in the Newark Airport parking lot, as mesmerized as Robin Williams in a New York grocery store in "Moscow on the Hudson."

One image in particular sticks in my mind. In a Norwegian language class, my teacher illustrated the meaning of the word matpakke - "packed lunch" - by reaching into her backpack and pulling out a hero sandwich wrapped in wax paper. It was her lunch. She held it up for all to see.

Yes, teachers are underpaid everywhere. But in Norway the matpakke is ubiquitous, from classroom to boardroom. In New York, an office worker might pop out at lunchtime to a deli; in Paris, she might enjoy quiche and a glass of wine at a brasserie. In Norway, she will sit at her desk with a sandwich from home.

It is not simply a matter of tradition, or a preference for a basic, nonmaterialistic life. Dining out is just too pricey in a country where teachers, for example, make about $50,000 a year before taxes. Even the humblest of meals - a large pizza delivered from Oslo's most popular pizza joint - will run from $34 to $48, including delivery fee and a 25 percent value added tax.

Not that groceries are cheap, either. Every weekend, armies of Norwegians drive to Sweden to stock up at supermarkets that are a bargain only by Norwegian standards. And this isn't a great solution, either, since gasoline (in this oil-exporting nation) costs more than $6 a gallon.

All this was illuminated last year in a study by a Swedish research organization, Timbro, which compared the gross domestic products of the 15 European Union members (before the 2004 expansion) with those of the 50 American states and the District of Columbia. (Norway, not being a member of the union, was not included.)

After adjusting the figures for the different purchasing powers of the dollar and euro, the only European country whose economic output per person was greater than the United States average was the tiny tax haven of Luxembourg, which ranked third, just behind Delaware and slightly ahead of Connecticut.

The next European country on the list was Ireland, down at 41st place out of 66; Sweden was 14th from the bottom (after Alabama), followed by Oklahoma, and then Britain, France, Finland, Germany and Italy. The bottom three spots on the list went to Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Alternatively, the study found, if the E.U. was treated as a single American state, it would rank fifth from the bottom, topping only Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia and Mississippi. In short, while Scandinavians are constantly told how much better they have it than Americans, Timbro's statistics suggest otherwise. So did a paper by a Swedish economics writer, Johan Norberg.

Contrasting "the American dream" with "the European daydream," Mr. Norberg described the difference: "Economic growth in the last 25 years has been 3 percent per annum in the U.S., compared to 2.2 percent in the E.U. That means that the American economy has almost doubled, whereas the E.U. economy has grown by slightly more than half. The purchasing power in the U.S. is $36,100 per capita, and in the E.U. $26,000 - and the gap is constantly widening."

The one detail in Timbro's study that didn't feel right to me was the placement of Scandinavian countries near the top of the list and Spain near the bottom. My own sense of things is that Spaniards live far better than Scandinavians. In Norwegian pubs, for example, anyone rich or insane enough to order, say, a gin and tonic is charged about $15 for a few teaspoons of gin at the bottom of a glass of tonic; in Spain, the drinks are dirt-cheap and the bartender will pour the gin up to the rim unless you say "stop."

In late March, another study, this one from KPMG, the international accounting and consulting firm, cast light on this paradox. It indicated that when disposable income was adjusted for cost of living, Scandinavians were the poorest people in Western Europe. Danes had the lowest adjusted income, Norwegians the second lowest, Swedes the third. Spain and Portugal, with two of Europe's least regulated economies, led the list.

Most recently, the Danish Ministry of Finance released a study comparing the income available for private consumption in 30 countries. Norway did somewhat better here than in the KPMG study, lagging behind most of Western Europe but at least beating out Ireland and Portugal.

The thrust, however, was to confirm Timbro's and Mr. Norberg's picture of American and European wealth. While the private-consumption figure for the United States was $32,900 per person, the countries of Western Europe (again excepting Luxembourg, at $29,450) ranged between $13,850 and $23,500, with Norway at $18,350.

Meanwhile, the references to Norway as "the world's richest country" keep on coming. An April 2 article in Dagsavisen, a major Oslo daily, asked: How is it that "in the world's richest country we're tearing down social services that were built up when Norway was much poorer?"

Obviously, this is one misconception that won't be put to rest by a measly think-tank study or two.

 

Bruce Bawer,a freelance writer based in Oslo, reports frequently on social and cultural issues.

The New York Times Week in Review Perspective We're Rich, You're Not. End of Story.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/archive/index.php/t-41841.html

Nota: El texto a continuación es de una fuente poco conocida, a diferencia de los demás. Debe leerse con cuidado

1) there are no people in Scandinavia that involuntary live beneath the poverty line. As the state will (and must) help such persons. Compare this with the US where 12% lies under the poverty line (source CIA factbook)


You have to remember "poor" is defined by spending more than 2/3 of one's income basic on food and housing. In that case I was quite "poor" when I was in school despite paying $50,000 for my own education (no loans) and owning my own home.

In terms of quality of living, I can personally attest that the US has a much higher standard of living than Canada. Taxes as only 50% of what they are in Canada, cost of goods is on average 20% lower, etc, etc, etc.

The following are facts about persons defined as "poor" by the US Census Bureau, taken from various government reports:

- Forty-six percent of all poor households own their own homes. The average home owned by persons classified as poor by the Census Bureau is a three-bedroom house with one-and-a-half baths, a garage, and porch or patio.

- Seventy-six percent of poor households have air conditioning. By contrast, 30 years ago, only 36 percent of the entire U.S. population enjoyed air conditioning.

- Only 6 percent of poor households are overcrowded. More than two-thirds have more than two rooms per person.

- The average poor American has more living space than the average individual living in Paris, London, Vienna, Athens and other European cities. (These comparisons are to the average citizens in foreign countries, not to those classified as poor.)

- Nearly three-quarters of poor households own a car; 30 percent own two or more cars.

- Ninety-seven percent of poor households have a color television. Over half own two or more color televisions.

- Seventy-eight percent have a VCR or DVD player; 62 percent have cable or satellite TV reception.

- Seventy-three percent own a microwave oven, more than half have a stereo, and a third have an automatic dishwasher.
We're Rich, You're Not. End of Story [Archive] - Military Photos

http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/libertarian/115408

There is a popular political myth to the effect that Scandinavian countries, and especially Sweden, have become the best countries in the world thanks to a murky mixture of free market capitalism and cradle-to-grave socialism.

 

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One obvious problem with this myth is that there is no such thing as a mixture of capitalism and socialism. One may properly say "mixed economy", in that it incorporates a mixture of freedom and slavery. Advocates of political slavery contend that while Swedish people have to pay incredibly high levels of taxation and are overshadowed by a strong government (60% of GNP), they are reaping the benefits.

Unfortunately for the Swedes, that is not the case. According to Swedish economist Peter Stein in "Sweden: From Capitalist Success to Welfare-State Sclerosis", industrial competitiveness of Sweden has deteriorated sharply since the late 1960s, and now has one of the lowest economic growth rates of the OECD. Inflation is extremely high and unemployment, historically low at 1.5 to 2.5 percent, is now around 3.5 percent.

The Swedish Institute of Trade compiled statistics comparing the US to Sweden, and came to the conclusion that, with "fixed prices and purchasing power parity adjusted data", "the median household income in Sweden at the end of the 1990s was the equivalent of $26,800, compared with a median of $39,400 for U.S. households". It also found that Sweden had inferior productivity.

The international accounting and consulting firm KPMG found that when disposable income was adjusted for cost of living, Scandinavians were the poorest in Western Europe. Norway and Sweden were second and third-lowest for adjusted income. Spain and Portugal, which are amongst the freest European economies, more capitalist, were first and second.

Another example, while far away from Sweden, is North vs South Korea. Now that's an experiment. Gross National Income per capita for North Korea is 818$, South Korea is 12,646$. Exports for North Korea is 780 million dollars, South Korea is 193 billion dollars. Longevity in North Korea has dropped to 66 years, in South Korea is 75 years and rising. Same for infant death.

Government does not work. Socialism kills. That's why we're fighting against it, in the end. Lies make evil values, which make anti-life philosophies such as socialism, fascism, communism.

This assumed superiority of Sweden is based on the doctrine of "mixed economy". According to "Sweden : Poorer than you Think", from Mises Institute, "mixed economy" doctrine is composed of three main points :

The Swedish Myth Debunked

http://connectme.typepad.com/news/politics_and_tax/index.html

EU vs USA: How The Marketplaces Rank

Eu_vs_usa_1The NYTimes reports on a new Swedish study that shows if European Union members were states in the USA, they would belong to the poorest group of states, on par with Arkansas, Mississippi and West Virginia. France, Italy, Great Britain and Germany have lower GDP per capita than all but four of the states in the United States.

The report (Adobe Acrobat required), published by Stockholm-based research company Timbro, complains that too many European policymakers and voters seem to be divorced from reality. While they publicly state their desire to enjoy the same luxuries and welfare benefits as Americans, there simply isn't the impetus to pursue stronger economic growth policies.

My view is that mall companies like The Mills Company and Westfield, through their European operations, have a unique inroad into a historically state-controlled political minefield. U.S. retailers like Brookstone are able to use their existing relationships to speed their time to launch. Countries like France, the UK, and the Netherlands have seen how this model spurs consumption in the short term, and helps develop exportable retail concepts like Zara and Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) in the medium term. This "colonization" approach enables success stories to be developed and then replicated.

The study appears to disproportionately favor Scandinavian countries. In late March, another study from KPMG noted that when disposable income was adjusted for cost of living, Scandinavians were actually the poorest people in Western Europe.

ConnectMe Networks Politics and Tax

http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/2005/04/dead_weight.html

Alternatively, the study found, if the E.U. was treated as a single American state, it would rank fifth from the bottom, topping only Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia and Mississippi.

That's only the official numbers. To avoid the high taxes and onerous regulations a lot of people work 'off the books'. In Germany about 16 million people are involved in this, eithe as customers or suppliers of 'black' labor, goods and services. They account for about 350 to 400 million Euros, about 25 % of official GDP.

There's agood reason for that, for the various taxes and levies amount to pretty nifty multiplicator: If a plumber and a carpenter charge the same hourly rate, they both have to work 5 hours to pay for a single hour of each others services. The difference between before- and after-tax is that big, so a lot of people simply barter. That's illegal, of course, and you can go to jail for it, but to them it's better than going bankrupt and being unable to ever pay off their debt.

I'm making Robert's point here, of course, for this higher than reported GDP is in spite and not because of government.

PS: At least we don't have to pay 30 to 50 Euros for a Pizza, like the Norwegians - it's more like 50 to 10. :)

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Trysca is generally correct. You can't buy handguns in large parts of Europe. Unless you're a criminal, of course, in which case there are ways to procure pretty much anything, often smuggled through Yugoslavia.

In other words, you are denied the right to defend your own person and property from the most violent elements. And it's all for your own good, of course. Isn't it so much more civilized when everyone is as much of a potential helpless victim as anyone else ?

Dead weight Samizdata.net
---------

trysca thinks a populace living placidly, trusting their government to ban anything that it deems not good for them demonstrates a "rich culture".

A poor culture must be where people have a choice.

Surely it's not true that pizzas in Norway cost 30 to 50 euros? That's $40 to $65! For a pizza! It's not the long winter nights that are driving them to despairing suicide; it's having to pay $80 for a bottle of vodka and $65 for a pizza! What do they do to go out to a nice restaurant for a meal with a couple of cocktails followed by a bottle of wine? Or is this a once-in-a-lifetime special experience for the average Bjorn?

Remind me to stay away from those "rich cultures" and go slumming with the (armed) Americans.

Dead weight Samizdata.net

Dead weight Samizdata.net

Nota: El anterior texto es de una fuente poco conocida, a diferencia de los demás. Debe leerse con cuidado

http://www.norway.org.uk/policy/tax/tax.htm

Society & Policy

Taxes in Norway

07/12/2004 :: In Norway income tax ("inntektsskatt") and wealth tax ("formuesskatt") are direct taxes ("direkte skatter"). Income tax is paid directly as a percentage of income, whereas wealth tax is a tax on things you own, such as a house, bank deposits etc. Taxes are paid both to the state and the local municipality. In addition, a premium is paid to the social security system to finance public hospitals, medical treatment and various social benefits.

The most important indirect tax ("indirekte skatt") is value added tax, VAT, which is a general tax levied on sales within the country and on import. VAT is levied on most goods and some services, and applies to all stages in the chain of production and distribution. Any person engaged in trade or business is required to register and to charge and pay VAT on goods he/she supplies. VAT on inputs purchased by the registrants is deductible in the VAT accounts. VAT is thus not a tax on the registrants but a tax on final consumption.

VAT is presently calculated at a rate of 12 to 24 per cent of net price.

All self-employed persons are obliged to add this tax to sales of goods and services; it is a punishable offence not paying this tax in Norway. Further information on value added tax is available from the Chief County Tax Inspector ("Fylkesskattesjefen").

Your employer in Norway is obliged to deduct tax from you wages before you are paid. Once you have found employment in Norway you must obtain a tax card from you local taxation office as soon as possible. Your employer and the taxation office will provide all necessary information on how to apply and what you must enclose with your application. The tax card states what percentage of your income your employer must deduct in tax. If you start work without a tax card, your employer is obliged to deduce 50 % tax. This is generally more than would be deducted from you wages if you had a tax card, but if you have paid too much tax, you will receive a refund in the spring or autumn of the following year when the tax assessments are completed.

If you live in Norway for a period less than six months, special tax regulations apply. Your local taxation office ("ligningskontor") in Norway will provide more information.

A detailed overview of the Taxes in Norway is offered on the web pages of the Ministry of Finance. A guide to the Norwegian tax system is available here.

The bilateral treaty between the Government of the Kingdom of Norway and the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income and capital was amended on the 12 October 2000.

For companies and persons not resident in Norway but engaged in tax activities in Norway the tax affairs will be dealt with by:

Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs 

(Sentralskattekontoret for utenlandssaker)

Prinsens vei 1
4300 Sandnes
Telephone: +47 51 67 80 88
Fax: +47 51 67 85 59

See also the Central Office's Guide for foreign employers and employees.

Taxes in Norway (Norway - the official site in the UK)

ReducirLaOfertaDeGobiernoReduciendoLaDemanda-"Nadie Lava un auto de alquiler"

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2004-10/2004-10.shtml#085

EUADebeRechazarIVA-IVAEnEuropaCreoGobiernosMasGrandesNoDeficitsMasPequeños-IngresosTributarios1970EUA28%UE30%-2000EUA30%UE42%

1000EstadounidensesDiariamenteSetrasladaronDeEstadosDeAltosImpuestosABajosImpuestos-CadaDia250HhaoiansSeConviertenEnFloridianos

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2004-10/2004-10.shtml#052

Welfare spending subsidizes unemployment

http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/blog/2004-10/2004-10.shtml#022

 

 

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